Thursday, October 29, 2015

2.2 "Future of the Democratic Party"

1.Republicans have a large percentage of the representation in our government. They make up 70% of state legislation, 55% of attorney generals and secretaries of state. For example there are 247 Republicans in the house and 54 Republicans in the Senate.
2. Because they have a majority of the power in both the House and Senate and it does not appear that it will be changing any time soon. 
3.  The greatest level of electoral entrenchment is reached by state legislation controlling the redistricting process for the House of Representatives.
4. Seven states fulfill that role. 
5. The main achievements of Republican controlled state governments are restricted abortion rights, the spreading of union-hostile "right to work" laws, curbed voter rights, job cut son teachers and other workers.
6. My estimation would be that 29% of the US population is under Democratically controlled government. 
7. The distribution of population in the United States creates the tendency of the average House district to be more GOP-friendly than the overall population. Which means that Republicans have a gigantic advantage in House voting decisions.
8. The Democratic agenda is at the federal level. The Republican agenda is to make as little change happen as possible, or to adopt some slightly more left ideals about some topics.
9. Because if the Hispanic vote is won by Republicans then they obtain a new demographic and possibly gain support from new states.  
10. Same-sex marriage, gun control, and raising minimum wage are some of the newer things that the Democratic party has put its eyes on. 

2.1 "Trump and Bernie"

1. They say that the most important factor of the decision of the party nominee would be the party itself, and in particular the house leaders and insiders have the biggest say in who the nominee is. 
2. The first debate, Fox News used the debate to lay a trap for Donald Trump to make him seem like a bad candidate. 
3. The voters are really wanting to make the decision themselves, and go against the elites of the party and while this is happening the party insiders are wanting to control who the nominees will be. 
4. The party picked Romney because he had established credibility by establishing connections when he ran in 2008, and he was the candidate that was most likely to win the race for the Republicans. 
5. Endorsements from the party insiders before Iowa correlated exactly with who won the nominations. The trend would be that endorsements best predict presidential nominees. 
6. Jeb Bush is what the Republican insiders or elites want for the nomination, but there is not a lot of support for him. 
7. The candidate's status seems to be the most important determinate. The chosen candidate normally has one of two things going for them: national figure or currently in office. 
8. Parties can influence the primary calendar, change ballot qualification requirements, and limit the number of debates to sort of influence the ways that the party as a whole responds to candidates and such. 
9. That they are not representing want the voters want in many major issues. 
10. Before the primaries voter opinion is very much all over the place, but voters begin to get more serious when the primaries approach. Regardless of voter opinion about Trump in the end, the party itself will not endorse Trump because of his approach and personality. Remember parties endorse the candidates that will be their ticket to winning the entirety of the election. 

Friday, October 9, 2015

1.1 Blog Post

Yglesias thinks that Boehner's resignation has something to do with the fact that he thinks that the Republican party doesn't need to focus on running against each other. That is also the reason why his resignation was so quick and with without much notice at all. He will be replaced with a run for candidacy. He will not be missed by many conservatives because he often did not let conservative reforms go through the house. He also might not be too sad to be leaving now because thee is another government shutdown is brewing. This one very much related to the fact that government funds are indirectly funding Planned Parenthood abortions, and many conservatives are not okay with that. The Tea Party has not challenged them because they have challenged him before, and because of his job security is even stronger now, it would not make sense for them to do so. McCarthy is the most hyped candidate, but I do not think that he will be successful if the House not work with them. If he does win the race then he will find himself facing all the same problems that Boehner faced.