Monday, February 15, 2016

Iowa

Democratic Polls
1. There was a 3% difference in favor of Clinton.
2. O'Malley and Clinton both appeal more to moderate voters than Sanders does, so if Clinton dropped out, O'Malley's support would shoot up.
3. They are decidedly in favor of Sanders.
4. Clinton has a sizable lead over Sanders in both old people and women.
5. The margin of error is 4 points, so pollsters know that Clinton will win between 49% and 41% of the vote.

Republican Polls
1. Trump has a 5% lead over Cruz and a 13% lead over Rubio.
2. The people who don't support Trump are not going to any time soon. 
3. The poll in early January showed a 3% lead for Cruz over Trump.
4. Trump's supporters makes up a greater percentage of first time caucus goers, meaning that Cruz's veteran caucus voters will give him an advantage.
5. Like the democratic poll, the margin of error is 4%. So Cruz might actually not be that far behind Trump and Rubio could actually be closer than the numbers let on.

Actual Results
1. Martin O'Malley and Trump had slightly less support than reported, but Sanders, Clinton, Rubio, and Cruz had more voters. Sanders and Clinton were much closer (practically tied) and Cruz jumped from #2 to #1.
2. Rubio, and his voter turnout was about 8% more than projected.
3. Rubio, Cruz, and Sanders all had numbers slightly higher than predicted.
4. Rubio, who showed his legitimacy by the stark increase in his support, and Sanders, who, after people figured the race between he and Clinton would not be that close, received nearly the exact amount of votes and delegates as Clinton.
5. Each vote cost him $2,844.60 which, coincidentally, is more than his total amount of votes.

No comments:

Post a Comment